THE URGENT NEED FOR POPULATION CENSUS IN NIGERIA

 THE URGENT NEED FOR POPULATION CENSUS IN NIGERIA

A population census is the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analysing and publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specified time, to all persons in a country or in a well delimited part of a country. Every serious set up be it a community, state or much more a country often have a stipulated time for head to head counting of humans dwelling a particular area. It must however be clearly stated that population census is not only the total headcount of a country’s population but also contains information about a country’s social, demographic, and economic information. In other words, it could be said that population census is a means to reveal people’s standard of livelihood and the spread of it. According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), “data obtained from the census on the economic characteristics of the population can be particularly useful to prepare basic tabulations of the population by their labour market situation whether employed, unemployed or outside the labour force.”

Expectedly, data gotten from conducting a population census are important in formulating economic policies as the government relies on these figures to form the basis of making decisions at all levels. While all these were the fundamental reasons for conducting the various population in the history of Nigeria, the peculiarity of the country have created much more problems beyond the original intentions of embarking on such exercise. Many have always stated globally that a census should be done every 10 years, but it is always difficult to sustain that in an economy like Nigeria’s. The timing requires political will and proclamation by the president. Constitutionally, it is conducted by the National Population Commission. Historically, all previous censuses in Nigeria were conducted in an environment fraught with political interference. This was because there was an incentive to inflate population figures. As people became more aware of the importance of population size for political representation in a federal system, the census became more problematic. There was also competition within states and among communities to inflate their population so as to get more government resources.

From the first census conducted  in 1911 and covered only a small part of the country to the most recent conducted in 2006, the story had always been the same -  plagued by political interference from design through to implementation. The population estimate was 140 million people. The results were criticized and subject to numerous litigation. Most recently, a report by the World Population Review reveals that Nigeria’s overall population will reach about 401.31 million by the year 2050, while the report by the Census Bureau of the United States reveals that by the year 2047, Nigeria’s population will surpass that of the United States thereby making it the third most populated country globally. The National Development Plan (NDP) estimates that Nigeria’s population currently stands at 200 million, which signifies a 42.2% increment from the 2006 census.

However, the issue is that Nigeria has gained little or nothing from its population as evidenced by its major economic indicators which have been on the trend of decline over the years. The inability of the country to gain from its huge population has led to two different schools of thought; the ones that believe that Nigeria spends too much and the ones that believe that Nigeria earns too low. Whatever the case might be the fact remains that Nigeria has not gotten it right as far as having an accurate database is concerned. Specifically, for a country like Nigeria where there is economic imbalance, high rate of migration, insecurity, unemployment etc , a population census has become inevitable in order to find her path in what the World Bank, described as“the engines of global growth which are aging rapidly and many have started experiencing outright population contraction alongside dwindling working-age shares 

It is succinctly clear that in Nigeria present situation, the country is just not in need of comprehensive census but a reliable, credible, acceptable and successful census that will help the country in planning for the citizen and making enough provision for its ever-increasing population. The need for an accurate census will help government in planning purpose for development, especially in bolstering the social security programme that targets more vulnerable Nigerians. “The country’s inability to conduct a population census in the last 16 years has created an information vacuum as the data from the last census conducted in 2006 has been rendered out of date for planning purposes. It has therefore become imperative for the nation to conduct another national census to produce a new set of demographic and socio-economic data that will provide the basis for national planning and sustainable development.

Population is a critical factor in a nation’s efforts toward achieving sustainable development. People are both the agents and beneficiaries of the development process. Knowledge of the national population in terms of size, distribution and socio-economic characteristics is required for planning purposes. This, therefore, makes the conduct of census an essential governance activity. With a projected population of 216,783,381, Nigeria is the sixth most populous country in the world and the most populous country on the African continent. Due to the rapidly growing nature of the population and large proportion of the youthful population, Nigeria is also projected to be the third most populous country in the World by the year 2050 after India and China. Furthermore, the irregular and long interval of census taking in Nigeria has denied the nation the huge benefits of comprehensive baseline data for evidence-based decision-making. Census data that will improve the implementation of programmes targeting vulnerable populations and ensuring as widespread coverage as possible. Because of all these, Nigeria requires a new data set to drive the implementation of the recently launched revised National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development and other government policies. 

Census data is also needed to tackle the security challenges bedeviling the country as it will give an overview of the population, where we are and who we are, knowing Nigeria’s population and using the data to plan for the people and future generations remain a collective duty owed the nation. Demographic data are important for national development. They are useful in sectoral planning and should influence the direction of government priorities. A youthful population like Nigeria requires accurate information on characteristics like the age and sex of the population and how they are distributed spatially. This is the basis of policy and planning for education, employment and health systems. Demographic data usually come from four main sources: population censuses; specialized surveys (on health topics, for example); registration systems for vital events including births and deaths; and government’s administrative records. Census data provide the bedrock for other sources.

The quality and reliability of a nation’s demographic information is partly a reflection of the quality of the census. Therefore, population census has become inevitable for the socio- political, economic, and educational development of Nigeria and as the country plan to embark on another journey into profiling its demography through census, it is advised that the country should deploy digital technology as this will ensure effectiveness and more accuracy in the figures. The absent of official population figures has created disparities of statistical figures: Information gotten from various economic and statistical power houses does not seem to arrive at a conclusive figure. For instance, the World Bank reported that Nigeria’s population as of the year 2021 was approximately 202 million, “Statista” estimated Nigeria’s population to be around 213 million while the IMF report as of 2021 estimated Nigeria’s population to be 216.747 million. Meanwhile, other statistical publications such as the World Population Review, the NBS, and others also have varying figures. Persistent fall in the standard of living despite increased expenditure: Without any iota of doubt, economic growth depends on the size of a country’s population and how it is able to use its resources efficiently. Therefore, it is high time Nigeria conduct an accurate, reliable and correct national census.

Dairo Oluwasekemi Ona-Ara