ISWAP theory and Owo massacre

      ISWAP theory and Owo massacre

The linking by the National Security Council of Islamic State’s West African Province, ISWAP, to the massacre at St Francis Catholic Church Owo, Ondo State threw up more puzzles than it is intended to resolve.

Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola who made public the position of the federal government, created room for initial doubt when he said security agencies have been directed to apprehend the perpetrators. What this meant is that no arrest had been made as at the time the minister spoke.

Yet, the government concluded that ISWAP was culpable for the heinous killings. The question that immediately begs for answers is – on what evidence did the federal government base its conclusion? Is it on a priori assumption; material evidence gathered before or after the heinous crime that left sorrow and awe on innocent citizens who went to church to commune with their creators?

The fact that the basis for linking ISWAP to those killings is yet to be availed the public, accounts for the welter of doubt that has since trailed that disclosure.

It was not for nothing that Governor Rotimi Akeredolu in whose state the mass killings occurred, was the first to pick holes with the conclusions of the federal government, describing it as ‘hasty’. He equally faulted that angle on the ground that ISWAP did not take responsibility for the killings as is characteristic of the terror organization.

As if the reservations of Akeredolu were not enough to impugn the integrity of the conclusion, a more fierce cynicism came from the Ekiti State governor and chairman of Nigeria Governors Forum, Kayode Fayemi when he described the claim as mere speculation.

Fayemi said as chief security officers of states, governors are privy to all manner of intelligence: “I don’t want to jump the gun as far as this is concerned and that is why, I am not going to go into any detail as to what intelligence we had and at what point we had it”.

In sum, Fayemi vehemently disagreed with the linking of ISWAP to the Owo killings. He would not want to be dragged into specifics at this point, but available evidence does not corroborate the ISAWP angle.

This raises the further question as to what the federal government intended to achieve by the link and why it was in a hurry to point accusing fingers on ISWAP. Are there footprints of the attack that bear close similarities with the modus operandi of that terror group? Or was the conclusion targeted at damage control to foreclose loose speculations and possibly stave off possible reprisal attacks?

Ondo State government has had a running battle with killer herdsmen following its enforcement of the anti-open grazing law. There have been skirmishes in the forests between herdsmen and enforcers of the anti-open grazing law. So the first group to suspect should have been herdsmen militias that lurk around the forests in the state.

There is the issue of proximity given the relative ease with which the killers disappeared into the thin air. Equally relevant is the close semblance of the attack with similar killings in parts of the country where herdsmen had issues with the local population. Benue State is a typical case of the Ondo situation where worshipers were mowed down while celebrating mass.

So it would not have been difficult suspecting the herdsmen. But the federal government would not have that angle either. They may well have reasons for the conclusion. But it is one thing to come out with conclusions on an issue and another altogether for such to command popular appeal and acceptability.

In the instant case, vital ingredients that would have accorded some credibility to that theory in the absence of any arrest were virtually missing. That is why both Akeredolu and Fayemi faulted the conclusion. And with them are legion.

By linking the attack to ISWAP, the federal government has inadvertently opened up another discomforting chapter in the war against terrorism in this country. The inevitable impression conveyed is that contrary to claims that the war against terrorism is on the decline, it is now rather spreading.

ISWAP, as the umbrella organization for all factions of Islamic State IS in West Africa, is primarily active in the Chad Basin. It fights an extensive insurgency against such countries as Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger.

It is also known for setting up an administration in territories where it is present; collecting taxes on trade and agriculture even as it also provides some security in return. In Nigeria where they operate in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states this characterization is largely true of their activities.

There is no known case of ISWAP presence in Ondo before the senseless attack on the church that left more than 40 people (children, men and women both old and young) dead and several others seriously wounded. Ondo State is far removed from the war theatres of ISWAP for any possible conjecture of spillover action.

For the claim associating ISWAP with the Ondo massacre to be credible, there has to be proof that the group maintains substantial presence in that state or evidence showing where they came from and ran to after the attack. There is also the issue of motive. What could be the grouse of the group with the Catholic Church in far-flung Owo? Could it be that ISWAP terrorists also take refuge in adjoining forests taking advantage of the activities of the herdsmen?

Perhaps, this angle looks more plausible. Those who masterminded the attack were very familiar with the Owo terrain. The choice of the Catholic Church was not just mere happenstance. It was carefully selected to get maximum impact given to its mixed attendance. And it worked out for them as many indigenous and non-indigenous worshippers were victims of their murderous attack.

The Owo attack has again elevated the imperative of re-examining the activities of those hiding in the forests under the guise of herding.  As long as our forests are inhabited by sundry criminals and terrorists, so long shall the Owo experience be a recurring decimal. It says a lot about the government that these killings keep going on and on, seemingly undetected.